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It is very likely that we will see more malaise in this market during the course of summer, so I believe that you will probably see a lot of a “sell the rallies” type of attitude.
The NASDAQ 100 continued to struggle yet again in the month of June, and it’s very likely that July will show a bit of the same. However, we are approaching an area that could offer a bit of support, especially near the 10,500 level. It is because of this that I believe that the NASDAQ 100 may stabilize a bit for the month of July, perhaps consolidating and trying to work off some of the excess selling pressure. The market has been eviscerated because the Federal Reserve has no other choice but to tighten rather aggressively.
When you look at this chart, you can see that the market is hanging near the 200-week EMA, is therefore there could be a bit of technical support here as well. This is a market that I think goes back-and-forth during the month of July, but probably has more of a tilt to the downside. After all, the monetary policy is not going to work in favor of the NASDAQ, and by extension, the NASDAQ 100.
However, there is only so far that the market can fall, and I believe that there will be a lot of support to be found near the 10,500 level, so if we were to break below there the next target would be the 10,000 handle, which is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area where we had seen resistance previously. As per usual, you will have to watch all of the major technology companies such as Meta, Tesla, Microsoft, Amazon, etc.
If those major corporations continue to get sold off, there’s almost no chance that the NASDAQ 100 will be able to take off. However, if some of the bigger technology companies do start to pick up a bit of a bid, maybe just due to the fact that they have gotten “cheap”, that would be the bullish case for the NASDAQ 100. However, it is very likely that we will see more malaise in this market during the course of summer, so I believe that you will probably see a lot of a “sell the rallies” type of attitude. It is not until we break above the 13,500 level that I believe the market has turned around enough to believe, something that I just don’t see happening.
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