S&P 500 Forecast: Index Gives Up Momentum

The only thing I think you can count on is a lot of noisy behavior, and therefore volatility. 

• The S&P 500 Index drifted a little lower Monday, as we await the Federal Reserve meeting and several other announcements for the week.
• The next couple of days could be rather noisy, as we will be waiting to see whether or not the Federal Reserve is going to tighten monetary policy by just 50 basis points, 75 basis points, or a whopping 100 basis points.
• Between now and then, there are a lot of people talking, none of which are really saying anything that you should be listening to. After all, it’s the Federal Reserve that knows what Federal Reserve is going to do.

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Bounce Expected

At this point, the 50-day EMA is sitting at the 3950 level and starting to curl a little bit higher. Because of this, it would not surprise me at all to see this market fall a little bit further, only to turn around and bounce. After all, the market will continue to be noisy, to say the least, but it’s likely that we have a situation where we will vascillate a bit here and there, in order to figure out where we are going to go long-term. By the time we get done with this week, we should have a good idea as to where things may end up over the next several months.

Having said all of that, if the price starts to move before the announcement, that could give you a bit of a “heads up “as to what traders are going to be doing over the next several weeks. If they are going to start buying everything into the announcement, if we were to break above the 4000 level on a daily close, that could kick off more bombing to reach the 4200 level. On the other hand, if we break it down below the 3900 level, that could open up a significant amount of selling pressure, perhaps sending the market much lower.

The only thing I think you can count on is a lot of noisy behavior, and therefore volatility. You need to be very cautious about the idea of jumping “all in”, as the market could rip in either direction and of course, Murphy’s Law suggests that you could be looking at a scenario where we have an opportunity to lose a lot of money if we get too big.

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